Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Antisocial Lettuces (2)

John Lettice in The Register neatly captures the 'all buses are red' nature of the Government's latest wheeze to predict which babies will grow into criminals:
The problem with prediction is that although it is possible to identify 'tell-tale' signs in actual offenders, the presence of these does not necessarily identify future offenders. Start with the real villains and work backwards, and the signs were all obviously there, but studies that start with the signs and work forwards don't end up separating the serial criminals from the law abiding. So yes, it may still seem 'obvious' that you can figure out what made people bad and go back to childhood and fix it, but right now you haven't been able to prove it. So stop experimenting on whole generations until you have proved it, OK?
What sort of criteria are used to judge the likelihood of a child becoming an offender? You can get and idea by scrolling down this page to the 'reasons for concern'. If you have 'housing difficulties' or are 'living in a high crime area', or even if you 'lack facilities', your baby is at risk of social exclusion.


There are quite a few schemes already in existence - see our website for a rundown.

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